WICHITA FALLS PUNDIT
HOME - SUPPORT THIS JOURNAL - MENU
National Weather Service
Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
229 AM EST Sun Feb 22 2026
Valid 12Z Wed Feb 25 2026 - 12Z Sun Mar 01 2026
...Overview...
A slow-moving upper pattern will consist of a southwestern U.S. ridge and troughing across much of the central and eastern U.S. from midweek into next weekend. A series of shortwaves moving through the trough will carry fronts and precipitation with them. The most impactful day may be Thursday, when heavy rain is possible in the Tennessee Valley/Southern Appalachians and vicinity while wintry precipitation is forecast across the Northeast. Meanwhile the upper ridge will allow for unseasonably warm temperatures from the Southwest to the Plains through late week, though chillier temperatures should return to the northern tier next weekend. Rounds of modest precipitation are possible in the Northwest under potential shortwaves.
...Guidance/Predictability Assessment...
Model guidance begins the medium range period Wednesday with good overall agreement in a western ridge/eastern trough pattern. Somewhat more uncertain will be shortwaves within the trough, along with their accompanying surface fronts/low pressure systems. Most dynamical and AI model guidance shows a surface low moving across or near the Northeast Thursday night into Friday, providing forcing for potential wintry precipitation. The 00Z CMC is the primary exception, which has a southern frontal low more dominant and does not have QPF in the Northeast. The 00Z GFS is farthest inland with the low track, for possible rain and freezing rain. Older runs of the AIFS and AIGFS have been far enough offshore to show limited QPF in the Northeast, but did show a western trend at 00Z. Will continue to watch for hopefully some model convergence in the details of this low track.
Behind this system, there is reasonably good agreement for troughing to deepen in the north-central U.S. accompanied by an arctic air intrusion. Then there is increasing uncertainty farther west by next weekend, with Pacific and Alaska model differences affecting the pattern in the Northwest. AI models are generally in between the western EC/CMC and eastern GFS with the position of an upper low in the Pacific offshore of northern California by next Sunday. The models that are west with the Pacific low allow for more troughing in the Northwest, while the AIFS/AIGFS and the GFS (though the GFS is even farther east) maintain ridging there.
The WPC forecast was based on a general model blend early in the period, with increasing proportions of the ensemble means as the period progressed, reaching half by Day 7.
...Weather/Hazards Highlights...
Modest precipitation, including northern tier snow, is forecast to impact parts of the central and eastern U.S. on Wednesday. By Thursday moisture is forecast to increase ahead of strong upper- level energy moving through the central U.S. and along/ahead of a cold front at the surface. Some instability could reach through parts of the Southeast into the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys toward the southern/central Appalachians. Thus rain and potentially thunderstorms are forecast in those areas, with widespread amounts likely 1-2 inches and locally higher totals. A Marginal Risk is proposed for the Day 5/Thursday ERO. Antecedent conditions are generally neutral there (drier farther west and farther south), but the relatively fast movement of the rain could be a limiting factor for flooding. Meanwhile to the north, wintry weather is likely across much of the Northeast, though precipitation amounts and type will depend on the uncertain low track. Precipitation should clear across much of the Eastern Seaboard by Friday behind the cold front, though rain could linger across southern Georgia/Florida. Another round of precipitation is possible across the east-central U.S. into next weekend.
Some rain and higher elevation snow are possible across portions of the Pacific Northwest and farther inland across the Intermountain West and Rockies on Wednesday. Precipitation coverage should lessen into late week, but remain across the Pacific Northwest and the northern Rockies. Downstream, the mean westerly/northwesterly flow will lead to high winds concerns across the Rockies and High Plains through much of next week, with fire weather a potential threat.
The western two-thirds of the country will mostly be warmer than average mid to late week due to the upper ridge over the Southwest. The Southwest into the Plains can expect temperatures of 15 to 25 degrees above average, leading to highs in the 80s in Texas at times and over 90F in parts of the Desert Southwest. Aside from a chilly Wednesday morning across the Northeast and Florida, the East should generally be near average for temperatures. Then over the weekend, a strong cold front should spread below average temperatures to the north-central U.S. and moderating temperatures to close to normal across much of the Plains/Mississippi Valley.
Tate