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Short Range Forecast Discussion
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
432 AM EDT Wed Sep 17 2025
...Coastal low will be slow to exit the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England...
...Rounds of heavy rain and possible severe thunderstorms across the northern and central Plains through the next couple of days...
...Tropical moisture from Mario reaching into the Southwest...
...Below average temperatures likely where wet weather occurs next two days, otherwise above average temperatures expected across much of the CONUS with heat building across the Midwest...
A coastal storm, reminiscence of a cold-season nor'easter, has made landfall over the eastern shores of Virginia early this morning. The center of the system is forecast to meander near the Mid-Atlantic coast today while steadily weakens over land. Bands of rain and a few embedded thunderstorms are forecast to gradually become more scattered across the Mid-Atlantic states today, with some of the heavy rain possibly reaching southeastern New England. By Thursday, the remnant circulation of the system will be slowly sliding off the Mid-Atlantic coast with sunshine returning during the day. A cold front dipping from eastern Canada will begin to trigger showers across northern New England early on Friday.
Meanwhile, another upper-low will be in a slow process to roll across the Intermountain West into the mid-section of the country. The slow evolution of this system will bring a couple of days of unsettled weather across the northern and central Plains in the form of locally heavy rain and strong to severe thunderstorms. The severe storm and heavy rain potentials are expected to be greatest early today across the north-central Plains and will shift toward the south-central High Plains later today. As a low pressure system gradually consolidates over the northern and central Plains, a swath of 1-2 inches of rain can be expected across western South Dakota through tonight on the back side of the system. From Thursday into early Friday, the heavy rain and severe storm potentials will be lowered. Nevertheless, a good chance of showers and thunderstorms are expected across the northern Plains and extend as far south as Oklahoma.
Tropical moisture associated with Mario, which has become post tropical off the west coast of the Baja, is forecast to bring scattered showers into far southern coastal California and the offshore islands today, with these showers pushing farther north into much of southern California on Thursday. Overall, any rainfall amount across the Southwest and central Rockies will be beneficial, as these areas have been notably dry. A general half an inch of rain can be expected to gradually work its way up the southern half of California through Friday morning with higher amounts across wind-facing terrains. Some of the rain will also work its way into southern Arizona and southern New Mexico.
Temperatures across much of CONUS for the next few days will be above normal, with the upper and middle Mississippi Valley seeing 10-15 degrees above normal. Heat is expected to increase across the Midwest with the passage of a warm front where high temperatures well into the 90s are in the forecast. Meanwhile, the East Coast as well as the northern Rockies into the northern and central High Plains will see below normal temperatures.
Across the Sunshine State, tropical moisture arriving from the western Caribbean Sea will bring more numerous showers and thunderstorms into the southern Florida Peninsula for the next couple of days. The Keys will likely be the wettest location where 3 inches of rainfall totals are possible through Friday morning.
Kong